Thursday, February 3, 2011

Piracy Predictive Model Passes Key Benchmark


By Allan McDougall, Evolutionary Security Management, Inc.

We are pleased to announce that the predator-prey model has passed its second benchmark and is now being more fully integrated into our risk assessment processes. This benchmark follows nearly two years of efforts that included the collection of pirate attack data from a wide range of sources, including teams deployed by ISSG Holdings Ltd (a key partner in the effort) and examining that data using two different approaches -- hypothesis testing and exploratory data analysis.

The primary categories and some of the elements involved in the study included the following:

-Environmental conditions (wind, wave, surface pressure and major events)
-The nature of the Pirate Action Group (mothership, skiff, weapons, and boarding tactics)
-The nature of shipping (vessel type, flag, company, past history, and preparedness).
This model combines elements of engineering, navigation and criminology with respect to the above.

While the first benchmark was tied to the collection and analysis of data, the second benchmark was tied to the validation process. This validation process took two forms:

The first involved one group collecting data over three months and testing it for fit.

The second involved taking an independent sample of data to identify correlations and then comparing them to the first set of correlations.

Given the results of this testing, we are moving forward with rolling out the predator-prey model as part of our risk assessment process for our clients and key partners. This is part of our commitment to ensuring that we continue to provide leading edge services.

Those that receive our monthly updates, often through our key partner ISSG Holdings in this exercise, will have received our initial information describing the framework of this model.

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